We’ve tried to ignore this topic as long as we possibly could.  Not because we don’t like it or don’t find it intriguing, but because it seems you cannot turn around in cyberspace these days without bumping into the thing.  We touched briefly on it quite some time ago, but with the recent “news” this week, it’s time to jump in with both feet.

Big Ten expansion; those three little (or big) words could change the face of college football forever.  Not just because the Big Ten would become a filthy rich, world domination-minded conference, but because it could set off a chain of events that would realign all the conferences around the country.  We’ve already seen it start to take shape.  Only a few months after the Big Ten made its announcement, the Pac 10 felt compelled to follow suit and announce its own plans for expansion. 

The question is not if, but when, and how many, and who.  The answer is complicated and would take far too many words for any post on here.  So with that in mind, here is our Cliff Notes version of what could be taking place, why, and what the ramifications would be.  Of course, this will likely all change many times over before any expansion actually occurs.  It seems as if every week or two plenty of new news breaks and the picture is shifted like some sort of fun house maze.  But here is our view as of this moment in time.  Be sure to rip it apart with your own bias (hey, that’s what we do) and check back as the story unfolds.

Notre Dame.  That’s what the whole thing really boils down to.  They are the prized possession and they are the key to this whole thing.  It has been public knowledge for some time now that ND is the key target of Big Ten expansion and it has been public knowledge that up until a few days ago, ND has had no interest in joining ANY conference.  With a few choice words, Jack Swarbick (AD at Notre Dame) sent some clear signals to the Big Ten: “We are listening!” 

Now, I do believe that when Swarbick says they want to stay independent he really means it will take something big to drag them into a conference.  I think most of the alumni are either arrogant or ignorant and many are both (for more on this topic, feel free to check out our sister site The Manchise).  They are so caught up in t he past and their “history” that they have looked past the fact that they barely relevant these days and that college football will surely pass them by unless they take a step into the present.  Currently, Notre Dame has a $9 million a year deal with NBC for the rights to all home games, is a lock to go to a bowl game and even gets special treatment in terms of requirements to make a BCS bowl.  But, the times they are a changin’.  The NBC deal runs out after this season (NBC will no doubt be willing to sign up for another 5 years, but who knows after that) and college football is inching closer to a playoff with every meeting of Congress.  Obviously, I think Notre Dame will be able to hold its own for years to come and will have no issues financially, but if these changes really do start to take shape, ND could be left at the station long after the last train has left. 

To me, the Irish have to think ahead of the moves if they want to avoid landing in a joke of a conference (and let’s face it Irish Nation, you WILL join a conference some day, you simply can’t afford not to financially or from a scheduling standpoint).  Consider this:  if the Irish pass on the Big Ten now, the conference will no doubt pull in at least one other school.  The likely scenario would be pulling in three schools (I believe if they landed ND they would stop there, but in an attempt to increase revenues from the BTN they will be adding multiple schools otherwise), as many as two of which could be from the Big East and likely one from the Big 12.  The Pac 10 is also talking expansion and one of the many candidates mentioned is Colorado. 

So let’s run with this for a second.  The Big 12 has just lost 2+ members, as has the Big East.  Both of these conferences will be looking to add schools to replace.  As a major shift begins to surface, I feel the SEC could even jump in on the action and try to pull a team or two away from the Big East or ACC.  Obviously, if this starts to happen, ND’s options begin to look worse and worse.  With a full docket for the Big 10 and Pac 10 (they have both just expanded giving them a championship game and reducing out-of-conference games by at least one), ND has quite possibly lost its annual matchups with Michigan, MSU, Purdue and USC.  Good luck filling up the schedule with credible opponents now that you are short by four games. 

Oh, by the way, the Big East, in its struggle to survive, may try to pull something here.  ND is already a member in other sports and the conference may present an ultimatum: join for football too or we boot you for other sports (again, no idea how likely this is, just spit-balling).  So, with the other conferences filling up, the Irish are looking at joining the Big East or possibly the Big 12 (remember, they are short 2-3 members now).  While that doesn’t sound too terrible from a competition standpoint, don’t forget that this whole ordeal is about making money.  Remember that $9 the ND makes a year from their TV deal?  Well, kiss it good-bye if they join either of those conferences. 

Meanwhile, the Big Ten has just expanded, adding an estimated $15 million a year in revenue from the new championship game alone.  What does that mean for members?  Well, they currently split the pie 12 ways (each school gets an equal cut, as does the conference) and each member pulls in between $21-$22 million a year in TV revenue alone!  That’s right, those snobby little Catholics are currently pulling in $10+ million a year LESS than every single Big Ten team is BEFORE they expand and increase their revenue (which, by the way, would sky-rocket if they can manage to get the BTN on expanded cable in the New Jersey/New York metro market and would jump significantly simply by getting into the St. Louis and KC markets via the addition of Mizzou). 

So to me, it would appear that ND has a very simple choice right now: join the Big Ten now and p*ss of a bunch of old, rich white guys, in turn creating a new generation of slightly less entitled white guys while making a lot of money… OR join some other conference later and p*ss of that same bunch of old, rich white guys, lose out on a BUNCH of money and lose all the benefits of being in a premier conference.  Not a real tough decision here if you ask me.  But, I’m not an ND alum, I’m not an Irish fan and I obviously want to see what is best for the Big Ten and Iowa (it’s hard for me too folks, but adding Notre Dame to the conference IS the best option and would be the best for every single school in the conference).  Obviously, if the Irish turn their back on the Big Ten now, it will likely be their last opportunity and the ripple will be felt around the college football landscape.  But, they are just one of several options for the Big Ten in its bid for expansion (and dollars).  We will take a look at several other options in the coming days/weeks and give our thoughts on why each would or would not make a good addition to the conference.  Check back often and let us know your thoughts on each school.